Possible Rounded Top in NZD-CHF

By: Mike Kulej The New Zealand Dollar has been very popular lately. Since the joint G7 central banks' intervention in the Japanese Yen, all of the commodity currencies, including the NZD, registered significant gains. They even rallied in relation to the Swiss Franc, the strongest currency in recent weeks. In case of the NZD-CHF, this could be corrective move within the large bearish price swing that preceded it. This pair sold off from a high of 0.7475 in February, to the recent low of 0.6380. Since then, of course, we had the current rally to 0.7172.

Is a Rounded Top Forming?

The price action as seen on the intermediate term chart has stalled, spending a week within a range of about 100 pips. It is also assuming a shape of a rounded top, which a reversal formation. Rounded tops, once completed, tend to have staying power, meaning that they are as reliable as chart patterns get.

To complete this rounded top, the NZD-CHF must move under 0.7045, which is a pivot point here, established by a minor low on April 4. The MACD and the RSI are already drifting south, confirming a possibility of a reversal. If this rounded top is completed, the NZD-CHF could easily drop 150-200 pips. 
http://www.dailyforex.com/forex-technical-analysis/2011/04/Possible-Rounded-Top-in-NZD-CHF/7647